Economy
November 27, 2019
Conference Board: Signs of Weakening in Consumer Confidence
Written by Peter Wright
The Conference Board’s September-November reports on consumer confidence show an increased weakening of people’s expectations.
Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board is quite a volatile indicator; therefore, we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in November was 125.5 with a three-month moving average (3MMA) of 126.0. The 3MMA has decreased from 132.1 in September. The composite index is made up of two sub-indexes: the consumer’s view of the present situation and his or her expectations for the future. In November, both consumers’ view of the present situation and their expectations were below the nine-year trend line (Figure 1).
