CRU: Global Pandemic Triggers Global Recession

By CRU Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook Overview March 2020

The global impact of Covid-19 has been profound. Lockdowns of countries and regions are now the norm. Uncertainty about the “end game” has fueled financial market volatility and prompted unprecedented government support. CRU is now forecasting a global recession in 2020; GDP in the EU and the USA is expected to fall, and China suffers a “hard landing” as economic growth drops sharply to 2 percent. World GDP is expected to come to a halt, and world industrial production to contract (by -1.6 percent y/y). Global growth is expected to bounce back in 2021. In such unprecedented times, the uncertainty around our forecasts is larger than normal. Our figures are predicated on the assumption that the virus is successfully contained in major regions in Q2 (as it was in China in Q1) and that there is no second Covid-19 wave.