Economy
May 4, 2020
CRU: Covid-19 Scenarios--Strategies for Managing the Cycle and Beyond
Written by Ben Jones
By CRU Managing Consultant Ben Jones, from CRU’s Steel Sheet Products Market Outlook
Understanding the shape and nature of the Covid-19 cycle will be critical to commercial success, and in some cases, survival of many industry players. Traditional thinking about pathways back to normality (e.g. V, U, W, L shaped recoveries) ignores the potential for fundamental changes in the market. The most successful businesses remain agile and anticipate structural change amid “noisy” market signals. This has the potential to unlock massive rewards through early or counter cyclical decision making, such as those that bought assets when the industry was depressed in the mid-2000s, prior to the China boom. In this Insight, CRU Consulting provides guidance on evaluating the implications of three scenarios—labeled “Bump in the Road,” “Disorderly Adjustment” and “Managed Adaptation”—for management teams seeking to navigate such unprecedented circumstances. (See our previous Insight, “Re-thinking the Covid-19 cycle: a scenario-based approach,” for further background on these scenarios).
