WTO Revises Trade Outlook Up, GDP Down

The World Trade Organization has adjusted its outlook on world trade volume to a more optimistic view. In its latest report, the WTO forecast global trade volume to fall 9.2 percent in 2020 instead of 12.9 percent as predicted in the April trade forecast. Trade volume will rebound in 2021 to 7.2 percent, but remain well below pre-Covid levels.

“Strong trade performance in June and July have brought some signs of optimism for overall trade growth in 2020,” said the WTO report. “Trade growth in COVID-19-related products was particularly strong in these months, showing trade’s ability to help governments obtain needed supplies. Conversely, the forecast for next year is more pessimistic than the previous estimate of 21.3 percent growth, leaving merchandise trade well below its pre-pandemic trend in 2021.”