Final Thoughts

When I look at the results of our flat rolled survey, sometimes I have to scratch my head. In the survey we just completed last week, we asked at what point hot rolled prices would peak. Sixty-two percent of our respondents believe prices will peak at $700 or lower. To them I ask, what is happening in the market that is going to slow the rise?

I heard from multiple buyers late last week that HRC offers were $700 per ton or higher. My gut feel is we have some more to go before either more supply comes into the market, or demand starts to wane due to COVID-19, or for other reasons. Right now, inventories are low at the service centers (we expect our October analysis will find them still low but heading higher), automotive build continues, and residential construction is strong. The question marks are energy (expected to remain weak) and commercial construction (expected to slow as we move into 2021).