SMU Market Trends: Opinions on Steel’s Highs and Lows

Hot rolled steel prices are venturing into uncharted territory as an unprecedented combination of variables—idled capacity, short supplies, limited imports and an economy that’s surprisingly strong despite the pandemic—keep pushing them higher. Assuming that today’s record-high prices are unsustainable for the long-term, Steel Market Update asked in its survey last week: At what level do you think HRC prices will peak?

Responses from service center and OEM executives were all across the board. Calculated as a weighted average, the group was predicting a peak around $1,065 per ton as of last week. That prediction is already out of date, as SMU’s check of the market this week puts the price for HRC at a record $1,080 a ton–and rising. Nearly one-quarter said they believed prices will top $1,100 a ton. The consensus of steel buyers polled by SMU this week points to a peak closer to $1,200 a ton.