Steel Mill Lead Times: First Sign of a Change?

The average lead time on spot orders of hot rolled steel from the mill declined slightly for the second time in Steel Market Update’s biweekly survey and is now more than a half-week shorter than at this time last month. Lead times for other flat rolled products remained relatively unchanged, however, in SMU’s latest check of the market. Lead times are an indicator of steel demand—longer lead times mean the mills are busy and less likely to negotiate on price.

Current hot rolled lead times now average 7.57 weeks, down a bit from 7.87 two weeks ago and 8.24 in the last week of December. At around seven and a half weeks, HR lead times are still extremely extended compared with typical delivery times and remain more than twice as long as in April, shortly after the pandemic hit and steel demand stalled, when they registered a low of 3.25 weeks.