Steel Mill Lead Times: No Clear Trend Yet

After registering a slight dip in Steel Market Update data two weeks ago, lead times for delivery of spot orders of hot rolled steel inched back out again this week to an average of nearly eight weeks. SMU and most in the market have been watching closely for signs that lead times are beginning to shorten, which would suggest that activity at the mill level is easing and that steel prices might be expected to follow. That is not yet the case, at least for HR, though lead times for other flat rolled products and plate did see slight shortening in the latest data.

Current hot rolled lead times as measured by SMU now average 7.91 weeks, up a bit from 7.57 two weeks ago and 7.87 in the first week of January. At nearly eight weeks, HR lead times remain extremely extended, especially compared with the low point last April shortly after the pandemic hit when delivery times dipped as low as 3.25 weeks.