Steel Mill Lead Times: About as Low as They Can Go

Steel mill lead times have shortened to what is considered nearly normal by historical standards, with hot rolled lead times below four weeks and cold rolled and coated around six weeks, plus or minus. In other words, the time it takes the mills to make steel and process orders can’t get much shorter. But the downward-trending steel prices – which are still double the historical norm – may have a ways to go before they level out. But we don’t expect a lot more downward movement in lead times. The thing to watch now is whether and when they start moving upward again. Recall that lead times began falling over the summer – well before prices did in the fall.

Buyers polled by SMU over the past three days reported mill lead times ranging from 2-6 weeks for hot rolled, 4-8 weeks for cold rolled, 4-9 weeks for galvanized, 6-8 weeks for Galvalume, and 3-5 weeks for plate.