It has been a crazy 2024 so far for hot-rolled coil (HRC) futures!!! “It’s not crazy, it’s hot rolled.” This chart shows the steeply backwardated Midwest HRC futures curve on Jan. 3 plummeting between $186 to $241 in the front three months, evolving into the curve six weeks later on Feb. 12. CME hot-rolled coil […]
Steel Market Update’s Demand Index remains in contracting territory, where it has been for most of the last four months, according to the latest survey data. While the market did react temporarily in response to mill price hikes in mid-June, apparent demand for flat-rolled steel in the US continues to trend down.
Though steel prices continue to drop, more buyers are holding off on finalizing transactions.
Mill lead times for most sheet products this week were basically flat compared to SMU's market check two weeks ago. Those for plate shortened once again.
The spread US hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices had held over offshore product for much of the year has almost evaporated, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis.
I wrote on Sunday about U.S. Steel being for sale and Cleveland-Cliffs announcing that it was the among bidders for the iconic Pittsburgh-based steelmaker. I have heard some interesting theories on who the other bidders might be. Foreign mills, domestic mills, private equity - even Elon Musk, which I think is when things started to really jump the shark.
Sheet prices slipped again, continuing a trend of lower week-over-week tags that began in mid-July.
US service center flat-rolled steel inventories spiked in July with a slowdown in shipments. At the end of July, service centers carried 56.1 shipping days of flat roll supply, according to adjusted SMU data.
Longview, Texas-based steel processor Friedman Industries is anticipating steady demand in the current quarter.
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and prime scrap prices narrowed further in August, according to Steel Market Update’s most recent pricing data.
July 2023- Facetime: Steel market analyst JOSH SPOORES talks with Modern Metals about CRU steel prices Q: Josh, you have been involved in the steel industry for quite a while. Can you give MM’s readers a quick summary of your experience? A: I joined the industry in 2005 and worked at a mill, service center, my own research company and then have been at CRU since 2012. I started learning the industry at Majestic Steel USA. They bought and sold in the spot market and carry a huge amount of inventory in anticipation of sales. Working there taught me an incredible amount about procurement strategy as well as how to develop a unique brand of market analysis. It’s this real-world analysis that matters—immersing yourself in data points and information, but, at the same time, making sure to eliminate any excess noise.
The last article I wrote on Thursday, July 13, pointed to the surprising rallies in the August and September futures, while noting the August future trading to just below its multi-year down trendline.
The spread between US and offshore hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices continues to narrow as domestic tags have declined further, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis.
SMU’s hot-rolled coil price slipped a little below $800 per ton ($40 per cwt) this week for the first time in more than six months. You’d think that might have caused more of a fuss than it appears to have. Instead, many of the conversations I’ve had with folks in the market today have been […]
SMU senior analyst David Schollert provides an overview of steel market indicators for the month of July.
This is a tough time to be in the forecasting business, especially when it comes to steel. You might have a battle-tested model based on the latest macroeconomic data, prices, inventories, and lead times. The catch: Whatever a forecast might showing now could be overshadowed by events next month. Namely, labor negotiations between the United Auto Workers (UAW) union and automakers General Motors, Ford, and Stellantis.
Steel Market Update’s Demand Index has now been contracting territory for the better part of the past 3-plus months, according to the latest survey data.
The spread between hot-rolled coil (HRC) and galvanized coil base prices widened over the last month as hot rolled prices declined faster than prices for galvanized product.
The summer cycle has brought more focus around the uncertainty of where HR prices are headed. Spot indexes continue to bleed lower despite price hikes from sheet mills. Market talk is of still lower prices as the gap grows between the slow-moving index versus expectations for HR future prices declines. (The index likely reflects smaller, […]
Movements in lead times were again mixed in SMU’s market check this week, with most products mostly sideways compared to two weeks ago.
The spread between US and offshore hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices has narrowed to its lowest level since mid-February, when domestic prices were still trending upwards, according to SMU’s latest foreign vs. domestic price analysis.
The percentage of respondents saying mills were willing to negotiate price rose on all sheet products and plate this week, according to SMU's most recent survey data.
Sheet prices slipped for the third consecutive week on continued discounts from certain mills for larger buyers.
We weren’t supposed to see hot-rolled coil prices dip below $800 per ton ($40 per cwt) anytime soon.
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices fell for a second consecutive week as mills appear to have given up holding the line on $900 per ton ($45 per cwt) and amid discounting into the high $700s per ton.
We weren’t supposed to see hot-rolled coil prices dip below $800 per ton ($40 per cwt) anytime soon. Or at least that seemed to be the consensus in mid-June after mills rolled out a round of $50-per-ton price hikes, with a second round rumored to be in the works. That second round of price hikes […]
Hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices fell for a second consecutive week as mills appear to have given up holding the line on $900 per ton ($45 per cwt) and amid discounting into the high $700s per ton. SMU’s average HRC price now stands at $830 per ton, down $40 per ton from a week ago and marking […]
I’ll dive into the latest sheet market trends in a moment. But first some big news: We’re less than a month away from the start of SMU’s Steel Summit in Atlanta! Nearly 1,100 people were registered to attend when I last checked on Friday. The pace of registrations has picked up, so we’ll probably be […]
I’ll dive into the latest sheet market trends in a moment. But first some big news: We’re less than a month away from the start of SMU’s Steel Summit in Atlanta! Nearly 1,100 people were registered to attend when I last checked on Friday. The pace of registrations has picked up, so we’ll probably be […]
We’re just a month out from Steel Summit, so I decided to go back and check on how things look now compared to ~30 days ahead of the event last year. For starters, approximately ~1,100 people are registered to attend the event on Aug. 21-23 in Atlanta. That puts us on track to meet or […]