New, single‐family home sales rebounded slightly in January in response to declining mortgage rates and home prices in December, according to a joint report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Census Bureau. The result was helped by home builders’ use of sales incentives, which boosted new home sales, the […]
Editor’s note: SMU Contributor David Feldstein is president of Rock Trading Advisors. Rock provides customers attached to the steel industry with commodity price risk management services and market intelligence. RTA is registered with the National Futures Association as a Commodity Trade Advisor. David has over 20 years of professional trading experience and has been active […]
Existing home sales declined for the 12th month in a row in January, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). All four major regions in the US registered year-over-year (YoY) drops, though sales were mixed month over month (MoM) among the four regions. The South and West regions registered increases MoM, while the East and Midwest […]
There is still a debate on whether the US will enter into a recession during 2023. The beginning of the year has been slower, but overall end-use demand has been holding up relatively well. The mid-part of the year, Q2-Q3, is where most forecasts peg a downturn. Therefore, perhaps the largest challenges are still looming. […]
Now entering the second month of the year, prices are still a top-of-mind conversation. After its run-up to over $2,600/tonne, the London Metal Exchange calmed, and volatility dropped. This signals that, for now, it has hit resistance. The Midwest premium has followed a similar trend. After peaking just over $0.30/lb, it has started to come […]
The big story of the new year continues to be the run-up of the regional Midwest premium (MWP). As January comes to an end, the MWP sits just over $0.30/lb, or almost 50% higher than December’s price. A return of market activity in general has pushed the premium back up closer to replacement cost levels. […]
Existing home sales declined for the eleventh month in a row in December, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). All four major regions in the US registered year-over-year (YoY) drops. And except of the West, all other regions notched month-over-month (MoM) declines as well, NAR said. Sales of existing homes dropped to a seasonally adjusted annual […]
Housing starts declined 1.4% in December, even though single-family housing starts posted a double-digit percentage gain last month, according to a report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Census Bureau. Led by a decline in multi-family production, overall housing starts decreased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.38 […]
By CRU Principal Economist Alex Tuckett, from CRU’s Global Economic Outlook In December we conducted our annual macroeconomic survey, asking our clients to look into the future of the global economy. As we look back on a year full of challenges for the global economy and head into 2023 full of uncertainty, we explore the […]
The Midwest premium (MWP), calm at year end, started the new year off with a bang, and has jumped up $0.03-.04 in the first two weeks of January. Movement is likely based on the market regulating back up to the full replacement cost level (freight, inventory carry cost, insurance) as trading activity picks back up. […]
Starting after the recovery of the financial system from the 2008 global financial crisis, and continuing until Covid-19 hit, the economy was remarkably stable and consistent. Demand for aluminum in general grew at a steady pace, with some end-use segments outperforming historical averages. For financial markets, the running joke became “stock prices go up.” Since 2020, […]
With 2022 now in the past, the door has closed on one of the most volatile years for the aluminum industry. Supply chain disruptions as a residual fallout from Covid-19 and elevated levels of geopolitical risk raised uncertainty throughout the value chain. The shift in import trends has also been a major topic and is […]
This is the final Final Thoughts of 2022. We made it! This time last year I was talking to customers about processing orders. This year I’m writing about market tends. So things are a bit different. But I still notice the steel industry’s typical holiday lull. This week we saw that consumer confidence increased, the USW […]
The US economy’s growth was even better than expected in the third quarter, the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its third and final review. Gross Domestic Production (GDP) accelerated to a 3.2% annualized pace in Q3. That’s an improvement from the previously estimated government reading in November, which showed 2.9% […]
In this Global Economic Outlook, we look ahead to 2023 and outline our top ten calls for the global economy. These include predictions on inflation, the war in Ukraine, electric vehicles and Covid-19 in China. No. 1: Global Growth Will Slow From 2022 We expect both the US and Europe to experience recessions over the […]
The US economy’s growth was stronger than expected in the third quarter, the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its latest report. Gross Domestic Production (GDP) accelerated to a 2.9% annualized pace in Q3. That’s an improvement from the initial government reading in October which showed 2.6% growth in economic activity. […]
Existing-home sales declined in October, retreating for the ninth straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). All four major US regions saw sales decline both month-on-month (MoM) and year-on-year (YoY) in October. October sales fell 5.9% from September to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.43 million units. Total registered sales were […]
The outlook for multifamily construction closed the third quarter on a low note, as confidence in the market for new multifamily housing declined significantly during the period, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Multifamily Market Survey (MMS). The MMS’s two separate indices saw mixed results. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) fell 10 […]
Housing starts fell by 4.2% in October to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.43 million units, according to a report from the US Department of Housing and Urban Development and the US Census Bureau. The decline came as elevated mortgage rates, rising construction costs, and waning demand stemming from high home costs drag on […]
Steel market conditions might be tough for the balance of the year, but Stelco sees the early signs of better times in the first quarter. The Hamilton, Ontario-based integrated sheet producer is also keeping a keen eye out for potential distressed acquisitions, company executives suggested during an earnings conference call with analysts on Wednesday, Nov. […]
Housing costs continue to rise in the third quarter. New homes are now more expensive than they’ve been in more than a decade, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said. The result: the housing market has tipped into a recession. The trend has been driven by rising mortgage rates, ongoing building material supply chain […]
US construction spending in September totaled $1.811 trillion at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), just 0.2% above August after August’s 0.6% decline. The unexpected rebound in September came amid a surge in nonresidential investment that offset declining outlays on single-family homebuilding, according to data from the US Commerce Department. The month-on-month (MoM) increase was […]
Apparent demand for flat-rolled steel in the US edged down slightly in SMU’s latest analysis of demand and lead time dynamics. Despite the slight decline in the latter half of October, the month’s SMU Steel Demand Index closed out roughly 2.5 points above September’s reading but remained in contracting territory for the sixth straight month […]
Existing-home sales shrank in September, retreating for an eighth straight month, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Three out of the four major US regions saw sales decline month-over-month (MoM) in September while sales in the West held steady. Sales were down across each region year-over-year (YoY). September sales fell 1.5% from August […]
Builder confidence fell for the tenth straight month in October, while traffic of prospective buyers fell to its lowest level since 2012 (excluding the two-month period at the onset of the pandemic), the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) said. The report, in conjunction with the Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), said that rising […]
News that the Biden Administration is considering a total ban on Russian aluminum imports lifted the market Tuesday afternoon, Oct. 11. The LME aluminum three-month price increased sharply to a high of $2,400 per ton before some of the gains were reversed by the close. The price saw some volatile shifts during the week but […]
Time for a contrarian, optimistic thought experiment. First the bad news: Sentiment is increasingly bearish on months of falling steel and scrap prices, nearly all respondents to our latest survey report that mills are willing to negotiate lower still, and flattish lead times provide paltry evidence for a rebound. A quick check of the headlines […]
On Friday the Bureau of Labor Statistics released its latest report card on the US economy’s performance with its September jobs report. The results, though surprisingly upbeat, point to potentially more troublesome days ahead, both personally and collectively for the steel industry. So here are just a few thoughts to ponder as October nears […]
The US economy added 263,000 new jobs in September, slowing for the second straight month and marking the lowest monthly total since April 2021, according to data from the US Department of Labor. Despite the repeated decline in hiring, last month’s total was still solid by pre-pandemic standards and slightly ahead of the expected payroll […]
The US economy declined at a revised -0.6% in the second quarter of 2022, matching the most recent GDP estimate and confirming the economy shrank in the first six months of the year, according to the second estimate from the US Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). Gross domestic production (GDP) in Q2 contracted […]