On Friday Steel Market Update (SMU) adjusted our flat rolled steel Price Momentum Indicator to Neutral from Higher. The key reason behind our decision to move our indicator is “indecision” in the marketplace. More about that in a moment. The current market cycle began on October 21, 2016 when the domestic mills were able to […]
Licensed data for March was reported by the Steel Import Monitoring System of the US Commerce Department on March 4th. An explanation of the methodology that we at SMU use to analyze the trade data is given at the end of this piece. All volumes in this analysis are reported in short tons. The total […]
We are continuing our investigation to quantify the players in the global trade of both HRC and CRC. We now have data for all of 2016. This information is sourced quarterly from the Iron and Steel Statistics Bureau in the UK. Data is not very current because many countries are slow in reporting but we […]
For those who missed my comment earlier, Acero Junction hot strip mill is rolling at close to full right now. Our sources are advising us that the mill is running about 50,000 tons of HRC. They have prime slabs on the floor and incoming from Brazil (one of the reasons why semi-finished imports continue to […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures […]
Based on the report filed by the U.S. Department of Commerce earlier this week, March 2017 foreign steel imports will be well above 3 million net tons and could be as high as 3.4 million tons. The last time we saw licenses at, or above, 3.4 million net tons was May 2015, the month prior […]
Flat rolled steel prices are showing themselves as being in a “mature” market having been on the rise for most of the 24 weeks since prices began their climb at the end of October 2016. We peaked out on hot rolled at $655 per ton over the last two weeks. This week we moved off […]
In August 2015, the U.S. steel mills filed antidumping and countervailing duty charges against seven countries: Australia, Brazil, Japan, the Netherlands, Turkey and the United Kingdom. Antidumping (AD) was found in each of the seven countries with duties of 3.73 percent to as high as 34.28 percent. Countervailing Duties (CVD) were found to exist in […]
The dry bulk freight market is through with its cyclic low and is headed toward a positive market, according to the latest MID-SHIP Report. MID-SHIP noted that Baltic Dry Index on March 29 was 1338, its highest rate since November 2014. As of today, April 4, the BDI has dropped to 1282. The shipping market […]
President Donald Trump signed new Executive Orders (XO’s) on trade and trade enforcement that contain no new initiatives. This is what we were told by trade attorney Lewis Leibowitz over the weekend. He told us: • “The Executive Order on trade enforcement has no new initiatives. It only requires the Commerce Department and Homeland Security […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. This will explain the difference between our view of the present situation which is subjective and our analysis of trends which is based on the latest facts available. During March our view […]
The headline report of GDP growth in Q4 came in at an upwardly revised 2.06 percent which was a decline from 3.53 percent in the third quarter. GDP is measured and reported in chained 2009 dollars and in the third estimate of Q4 was $16.813 trillion. GDP is defined as Consumption (C) plus Investment (I) […]
US Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross announced today that a final finding has been made on the dumping of carbon and alloy steel cut-to-length (CTL) plate into the U.S. from eight countries. Commerce affirmed that dumping had occurred regarding imports of CTL from Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan and imposed duties ranging […]
Chinese steel trade data was recently released for the month of February 2017, providing updated data on iron ore imports, scrap imports, and flat rolled imports and exports. Chinese imports of iron ore in February were 83,490,000 metric tons, a decrease of 9.1 percent from the previous month but an increase of 13.4 percent from […]
The Association of American Railroads finds in a new report that freight railroads are at risk from trade policies that curtail international trade. In an assessment released Tuesday, the AAR said that at least 42 percent of all rail carloads and intermodal units and 35 percent of annual rail revenue are directly associated with international […]
If the goal of the 2015 CORE, cold rolled and hot rolled trade cases was to reduce the number of foreign steel tons coming into the United States, well, the data says the cases did not complete their mission. There is one exception, hot rolled steel imports did indeed move lower and continue to move […]
Please see the end of this report for an explanation of data sources. The Broad Index value of the US $ is reported several days in arrears by the Federal Reserve, the latest value published was dated March 17th (Figure 1). The dollar had a recent peak of 128.963 on January 3rd which was the […]
The American Institute for International Steel reports steel imports in February were 21.3 percent higher than a year ago. AIIS cautions against U.S. protectionist policies that may hurt manufacturers who depend on global value supply chains. The press release from AIIS follows: Falls Church, VA. March 27, 2017. Steel imports dipped 3.1 percent in February, […]
Germany is seeking help from the European Union in its dispute with the United States regarding the alleged dumping of steel into the U.S. market. In a letter to EU trade commissioner Cecilia Malmstrom, German foreign minister Sigmar Gabriel asked the Commission to urge the United States to follow World Trade Organization rules when deciding […]
The following article on the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures markets was written by David Feldstein. As the Flack Global Metals director of risk management, Dave is an active participant in the hot rolled coil (HRC) futures market and we believe he will provide insightful commentary and trading ideas to our readers. Besides writing futures […]
Three Canadian Chambers of Commerce presented their concerns about unfairly traded steel to the Federal Government’s Standing Committee on International Trade on March 21. The Sault Ste. Marie Chamber of Commerce and its counterparts from Windsor-Essex and Hamilton were joined by key Canadian steel producers including Essar Steel Algoma, Stelco Inc., Gerdau Long Steel North […]
Demand for HVAC products was coined as being “good” or “very good” by the wholesalers who participated in the monthly HARDI galvanized steel conference call. The wholesalers who spoke on the call earlier today reported strong first quarter sales for their full product line but a few complained of lower steel sales compared to year […]
The U.S. Department of Commerce released March license data this afternoon that shows foreign steel imports trending toward a 3.5 million net ton month. SMU does not believe the month will come in at that level when all is said and done, but it appears it will be the first month to reach or exceed […]
When we conducted our flat rolled market trends analysis during the middle of February we found 20 percent of our respondents had concerns regarding supply during calendar year 2017. The majority of respondents (63 percent) expressed no concerns about supply. As we move forward to last week the majority is still expressing no concerns about […]
US steel exports rose in January according to the latest data analysis by the American Institute for International Steel. The press release from AIIS follows: Falls Church, VA. March 13, 2017. Steel exports started the year off strong, increasing 12.6 percent from December to January. The 818,431 net tons of exports were 4.6 percent higher […]
According to the latest data released from the U.S. Department of Commerce and the American Iron and Steel Institute, apparent steel supply for the month of January 2017 was 9,236,140 net tons. Apparent steel supply is calculated by adding domestic steel shipments and finished US steel imports, then subtracting total US steel exports. This is the […]
Turkey has filed a complaint with the World Trade Organization against U.S. countervailing duties placed on imports of pipe and tube products. Turkey requested the WTO initiate dispute consultation with the United States alleging the U.S. determination and imposition of duties was inconsistent with the WTO’s Agreement on Subsidies and Countevailing Measures (SCM Agreement) and […]
We believe that miss-information (or lack of) about regional import volumes is often used to influence purchase decisions. Our intent with this analysis of tonnage by district of entry is to describe in detail what is going on in a company’s immediate neighborhood and thus provide a negotiating advantage for our premium subscribers. We are […]
This report summarizes total steel supply from 2003 through January 2017 and year on year changes. It then compares domestic mill shipments and total supply to the market. It quantifies market direction by product and enables a side by side comparison of the degree to which imports have absorbed demand. Sources are the American Iron […]
Total foreign steel imports for the month of January were announced this past week by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Imports totaled 2,814,081 net tons or about 120,000 tons more than December and slightly above the twelve month and three month moving averages. At the same time license data was updated for February imports and […]