Starts in October fell to an annual rate of 1,009,000 units from 1,038,000 in September. The three month moving average (3MMA) decreased from 1,033,000 units to 1003,000, (Figure 1). This was the second time since January that the 3MMA had exceeded a million units. The year over year growth rate of the 3MMA of total […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. September data was released on November 3rd. Construction put in place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered has been increased by one this month to thirty six. We have added the price of coking coal FOB the Australian East Coast to the raw […]
The following is the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The CFNAI is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in The Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the end of this piece. Index Shows Economic Growth Picked up […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board bounced back in October and the dismal September results were revised upwards. The composite rose from 89.0 (first reported as 86.0) to 94.9, the view of the present situation rose from 93.0 (first reported as 89.4) to 93.7 as expectations rose from 86.4 (first reported […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a forecast to the HARDI members located in the United […]
Steel Market Update is a member of an association connected to the construction industry called HARDI. HARDI stands for Heating, Air-conditioning & Refrigeration Distributors International. HARDI and The Institute for Trend Research (ITR), an economic forecasting company, work together to gather economic data to provide a quarterly forecast to the HARDI members located in the […]
Statistical data out of China is always questioned for a number of reasons, not least is, “Is the data politically motivated.” Other suspicions arise because China gets their data out faster than any other major economy and the data is never revised. Figure 1 shows published data for the growth of GDP, industrial production and […]
Housing starts in September increased to an annual rate of 1,017,000 units from 957,000 in August. The three month moving average (3MMA) increased from 988,000 to 1,024,000 units, (Figure 1). This was the first time since January that the 3MMA had exceeded a million units. The year over year growth rate of the 3MMA of […]
Builder confidence fell five points to 54 in the October National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI). The decline follows four consecutive months of gains and a nine year high in September. The index for current sales conditions slipped six points to 57 while expectations for future sales inched down three points […]
The collapse of spot iron ore prices resulted in a surge in iron ore swaps, options and futures in September. Options hit the highest ever volume at 15.6 million tonnes followed by futures at 25 million tonnes according to TSI data. In total, over 62 million tonnes of futures and derivatives were cleared by exchanges […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. August data was released on October 1st. Construction put in place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect the […]
The hot rolled futures market has been active this week. After weeks of very little movement, selling has pushed futures prices into a more dramatic backwardation. Nearby months such as November and December have fallen $7 to $632. Further down the curve, HRC prices have fallen slightly more with all months in 2015 falling $8 […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board declined sharply in September, particularly in the expectations component. The composite fell from 93.4 to 86.0, the view of the present situation fell from 93.9 to 89.4 as expectations declined from 93.1 to 83.7. In closer examination, it looks as though the August view of […]
Sales of new residential homes in August surged 18 percent from July and 33 percent year over year to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000, according to Department of Commerce data. The level of sales last month was the highest seen since May 2008. The median sales price in August was $275,600 and average […]
Existing home sales fell unexpectedly in August, ending four straight months of gains. Home sales decreased 1.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted rate of 5.05 million from a revised rate of 5.14 in July. The August sales slid well below economist forecasts of SAAR 5.2 million for the month. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) […]
Housing starts and building permit authorizations fell in August according to data from the U.S. Department of Commerce. Housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 956,000, 14.4 percent below the July revised estimate of 1,117,000 but 8.0 percent above the August 2013 estimate. Single family housing starts fell 2.4 percent to a […]
Industrial production (IP) and manufacturing capacity utilization for August 2014: Both of these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The IP index was reported as 104.12 for August, a decline of 0.1 percent from July. This is another example where the individual month’s result can be misleading. The three month […]
At least once per month, Steel Market Update produces an update on the various currencies associated with steel trading nations. The following information is as of late last week and was produced by SMU contributing writer Peter Wright. Explanation of data sources: The broad index is published by the Federal Reserve on both a daily […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its Construction Put in Place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. July data was released on September 1st. Construction Put in Place is based on spending work as it occurs, estimated for a given month from a sample of projects. In effect the […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
The following is a press release by the Associated General Contractors of America: ACG, Sept 2, 2014 — Growing demand for construction services comes as new study finds one-in-four construction firms turning down work because of growing labor shortages for the industry. All major categories of construction spending increased in July and total construction reached […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board increased by 2.1 in August to 92.4. The view of the Present Situation rose by 6.7 to 94.6 as Expectations declined by 1.0 to 90. These two components have now crossed, as they always do at this stage of a recovery, and the view of […]
The following is an abridged version of the Chicago Federal Reserve statement followed by our own graphical analysis. The Chicago Federal Reserve National Activity Index (CFNAI) is an excellent reality check for much of the economic analysis that we routinely provide in the Steel Market Update. An explanation of the Index is provided at the […]
Home price gains slowed in June according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices. The monthly national index increased just 0.9 percent in June and the 10-City and 20-City Composites increased 1.0 percent. The index shows a sustained slowdown in the 12 months ending June 2014. “Home price gains continue to ease as they have since […]
Sales of new single family homes slipped 2.4 percent in July according to the most recent Department of Commerce estimates. Sales were down for the second month in a row at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 412,000, but still 12.3 percent above the July 2013 estimate of 367,000. The July sales rate was below […]
The buzz about aluminum replacing steel as the material of choice in automobiles isn’t holding true everywhere. Chrysler will be using steel body panels for its Ram pickup when it updates the vehicle in 2017, according to sources cited by Reuters, and will likely remain that way until the Ram receives a full redesign in […]
Existing home sales rose 2.4 percent in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.15 million units, the highest pace in 2014. However, sales still lag behind last year’s peak level in July 2013 of 5.38 million units. Stronger job growth and improving inventory conditions is behind slowly growing sales momentum, said Lawrence Yun, […]
Housing starts accelerated in July to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,093,000, up 15.7 percent from the previous month and 21.7 percent above the July 2013 SAAR, according to reports by the Commerce Department. Single family housing starts were up 8.3 percent from June while starts of multi-family housing of 5 units or more […]
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) has just released data on global oil production for 2013. The global total was just over 90 million barrels per day (bpd). The Middle East and North America produced 27,170,000 and 19,285,999 bpd, respectively. The United States was the world’s top oil producer at 12,302,000 bpd followed by Saudi Arabia […]