The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board rose in December and the November results were revised upwards. The composite rose from 91.0 to 92.6, the view of the present situation rose from 93.7 to 98.6 as expectations fell from 89.3 to 88.5. The three month moving averages (3MMA) of the composite and […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. The Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index which was suspended earlier this year was expected to be re-instituted this month but […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board declined in November and the October results were revised downwards. The composite fell from 94.1 to 88.7, the view of the present situation declined from 94.4 to 91.3 as expectations fell from 93.8 to 87.0. The three month moving averages (3MMA) also declined. The 3MMA […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board bounced back in October and the dismal September results were revised upwards. The composite rose from 89.0 (first reported as 86.0) to 94.9, the view of the present situation rose from 93.0 (first reported as 89.4) to 93.7 as expectations rose from 86.4 (first reported […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment indicated that 248,000 jobs were added in September. August , which had been disappointing, was revised up by 38,000 and July was revised up by 31,000. The three month moving average, (3MMA) declined to 224,000 in September and has declined for three straight months but […]
Global manufacturing growth slowed in September. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI eased to a 4-month of 52.2 maintaining the general rate of expansion seen throughout 2014. Meaningful growth was mostly limited to the U.S., however, along with improvements in Czech Republic, Ireland, Taiwan and Canada. Growth was stagnant in most of the rest of […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board declined sharply in September, particularly in the expectations component. The composite fell from 93.4 to 86.0, the view of the present situation fell from 93.9 to 89.4 as expectations declined from 93.1 to 83.7. In closer examination, it looks as though the August view of […]
Worthington Industries began its fiscal year 2015 with higher sales and solid net earnings. The company, located in Columbus, Ohio, reports net earnings of $44.2 million for FY 2015 first quarter, ending on August 31, 2014. Net sales totaled $862.4 million, up 25 percent compared to the first quarter of 2013. The consolidation of TWB […]
The following article was produced by Peter Wright, contributing writer and Steel 101 instructor for Steel Market Update. Economy.com reported as follows on the August U.S. vehicles sales volume: the year-to-date pace of 16.4 million units SAAR is the best since 2006, when it was 16.55 million. The strong recovery of the U.S. auto industry […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index is still on hold to enable the staff to complete a major re-vamp of the […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board increased by 2.1 in August to 92.4. The view of the Present Situation rose by 6.7 to 94.6 as Expectations declined by 1.0 to 90. These two components have now crossed, as they always do at this stage of a recovery, and the view of […]
Sales of new single family homes slipped 2.4 percent in July according to the most recent Department of Commerce estimates. Sales were down for the second month in a row at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 412,000, but still 12.3 percent above the July 2013 estimate of 367,000. The July sales rate was below […]
Consumer confidence hit its lowest level in nine months according to the University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters Consumer Sentiment Index. The preliminary sentiment index fell 2.6 points to 79.2 in the August survey, surprising economists who expected an uptick to 82.3 from the final July reading of 81.8. The survey’s outlook index fell to 66.2 from […]
Truck freight volume rose 7.5 percent in the last week of July according to DAT Trends. Load to truck ratios increased across all three truck categories while the average spot market rates remained stable. Flat bed truck demand increased by 6 percent while capacity declined 7.1 percent. The load to truck ratio for the week […]
The SMU Key Market Indicators is a Premium Level product produced by Peter Wright in collaboration with Steel Market Update. Our Executive Level members have been getting access to all of the Premium Level data for the month of July (today is the last day). This includes access to all of the Premium data which […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 4.5 in June to 90.9. The view of the present situation rose by 2.0 to 88.3 as expectations rose by 6.3 to 92.7, these two components have now converged as they always do at this stage of a recovery after which the view of the present situation will take […]
As you may have noticed, we have been writing a series of articles highlighting the benefits of our Premium membership. Through the end of July, our Executive members will have access to our Premium content. If you have not yet explored our Premium content, such as SMU’s survey data or imports by product/port/country, I would […]
Each month the Commerce Department issues its construction put in place (CPIP) data on the first working day covering activity two months earlier. April data was released on June 2nd. Total Construction: Data is reported on both a seasonally adjusted and non-adjusted basis. In the SMU analysis we consider only the non-adjusted data and remove […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 1.3 in May. The view of the present situation rose by 1.9 as expectations rose by 0.9. These two components are converging, as they always do at this stage of a recovery, after which the view of the present situation will take the lead. On the whole consumer confidence […]
The consumer confidence index decreased by 1.6 in April driven by a decline of 4.2 in the present situation component and an increase of 0.1 in expectations. Job availability was the main drag, a surprising result since economists expect the April net job creation report to be strong when reported by the Bureau of Labor […]
Home prices are continuing to rise but at a slower pace according to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Prices Indices. The S&P Dow Jones Indices are released monthly and compare annual rate gain for the 10-City and 20-City Composites. The current indice, released at the end of April, shows the rate of gain in February at 13.1 […]
One of the products which is provided to our Premium Level members only is our Key Market Indicators. Our KMI analysis is showing an improving (more positives than negatives) situation, especially in the flat rolled steel markets. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty five, a decrease of one as the Chicago Fed Mid-West Manufacturing Index has been put on hold until late April to enable […]
The consumer confidence index increased by 4.0 in March driven by an increase of 7.0 in the expectations component and a decline of 0.6 in the consumer’s view of the present situation. The three month moving average (3MMA) of both the present view and expectations components increased which caused the 3MMA of the composite to […]
Both these data points are reported in the Federal Reserve G17 data base. The Industrial Production (IP) index was reported as 101.63 for February, this was the fourth consecutive month for the index to exceed the pre-recession peak of September 2007. The three month moving average, (3MMA) of the index expanded by 0.62 month on […]
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report on non-farm employment beat the consensus expectation of a 150,000 gain in February by showing a net gain of 175,000 jobs. The three month moving average (3MMA) of the net gain has slowed for three consecutive months but the growth trajectory is still on track for a full […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered at present is thirty-six. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. The present situation of […]
The consumer confidence index declined by 1.3 in February driven by an increase of 4.4 in the present situation component and a decline of 5.4 in consumer expectations. The three month moving average (3MMA) of both the present view and expectations increased which caused the composite to rise from 76.3 to 78.3 (Figure 1). The […]
Friday’s report has been well publicized as disappointing at 113,000 jobs created especially following the December result at 76,000. Less well appreciated is that the January report made revisions to data on payrolls, the workweek and earnings going back to 2009. Revisions to this data, which is drawn from a survey of employers, showed 369,000 […]
Both the expectations and the view of the present situation improved in the mind of consumers in January according to the latest Conference Board analysis. We thought it would be interesting to take a longer term view this month because our past analyses have been somewhat overshadowed by the surging confidence of the late 1990s. […]