Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession, but the yield curve and housing permits should be on our radar screen. Steel Market Update has been producing this report every three months. We are now increasing the frequency to two months as the pundits are discussing the timing of the […]
U.S. consumer confidence lost momentum in November. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence declined for the month, but the three-month moving average (3MMA) continued to advance. The board’s composite value of consumer confidence in November was 135.7, down from 137.9 in October. The 3MMA, which smooths the data to reduce monthly volatility, increased from […]
The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence was revised down for September, but October made up most of that correction. Consumer confidence in October was at its highest level since September 2000. The composite value of consumer confidence in October was 137.9, up from the revised September value of 135.3. The three-month moving average (3MMA) […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict a recession any time soon, but the yield curve should be on your radar screen. Once every three months, the Steel Market Update staff tries to gain insight into the timing of the next recession. Economists consider recessions to be a necessary evil to clear […]
As of August, the U.S. economy had grown for 112 months in a row, the second longest growth streak in history. How much longer can that trend possibly continue? Is a recession inevitable? Not any time soon, predicts Lisa Morrison, Principal Economist for the CRU Group. Speaking at the CRU North American Steel Conference this […]
Consumer confidence increased strongly in August and the three-month moving average (3MMA) had the largest monthly increase since October last year, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in August was 133.4, up from 127.9 in July. The 3MMA increased from 127.9 in July to 129.5 in August, […]
Consumer confidence surged again in September to its highest level since September 2000, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in September was 138.4, up from 134.7 in August. The three-month moving average (3MMA) increased from 129.9 in August to 133.6 in September, which was 13.3 points higher […]
Consumer confidence increased in July after a small dip in June, but the three-month moving average (3MMA) advanced in each of those months, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in July was 127.4, up from 127.1 in June. The 3MMA increased from 127.2 in June to 127.8 […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict a recession, but keep a close eye on the yield curve. Economists consider recessions to be a necessary evil to clear out distortions that have arisen in the economy. At Steel Market Update, we track several leading indicators of economic activity. Viewed individually, they offer […]
Consumer confidence decreased in June and the three-month moving average (3MMA) declined for the second consecutive month, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in June was 126.4, down from 128.8 in May. The 3MMA decreased from 127.1 in May to 126.9 in June, which was 8.8 points […]
In May, consumer confidence improved to the highest level since December 2000, according to the latest findings from The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in May was 128.0, up from 125.6 in April. While consumer confidence increased in May from April’s downwardly revised result, the three-month moving average (3MMA) […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level readers. For more information about upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Key market indicators in December were at an all-time high in the history of Steel Market Update’s analysis, but trends are deteriorating. This report summarizes 36 data streams that we believe critically describe […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in March and recovered partially in April, but the three-month moving average (3MMA) has advanced for nine of the last 10 months, according to data from The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in April was 128.7, up from 127.0 in March. The 3MMA increased from […]
Sales of single-family homes jumped 4 percent in March to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 694,000, according to information from HUD and the Census Bureau. Sales of new homes were 8.8 percent above the March 2017 estimate of 638,000. Commerce estimates the number of new homes for sale at the end of March was […]
Automakers reported strong sales in March after a weak performance in February. Industry sales rose to 1.647 million units from 1.548 million last year, according to WardsAuto. The seasonally adjusted annual rate was 17.4 million, surging over last year’s rate of 16.7 million. “Consumers are keeping the U.S. economy growing and auto sales very healthy,” […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in March, but the three-month moving average continued to advance, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in February was 127.7, down from 130.0 in February. The three-month moving average (3MMA) increased from 125.8 in February to 127.3 in March, which was 9.8 points […]
Editor’s note: In this letter to the editor, former International Trade Commission Chairman Daniel Pearson comments on the Commerce Department’s Section 232 recommendations released on Friday. Thanks to Steel Market Update for sharing the DOC’s distressing recommendations. All of them look to me as if they would tighten supplies and raise prices significantly. The United States already […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in December, but recovered in January and remains at an extremely high level, according to The Conference Board’s January Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in January was 125.4, up from 123.1 in December. Last July, the composite reached 120 for the first time since November 2000 and […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in December, recovered partially in January and surged in February to the highest level since November 2000, according to The Conference Board’s February Consumer Confidence Survey. The composite value of consumer confidence in February was 130.8, up from 124.3 in January (1985=100). The three-month moving average (3MMA) increased from 125.3 in […]
Steel Market Update publisher, John Packard, traded comments with a financial analysts who was of the opinion that demand was under duress and the future of the steel using markets was in doubt. This does not match our belief based on a review of the SMU Key Market Indicators. We are sharing this report with […]
Consumer confidence increased for a fifth consecutive month and remains at at an extremely high level, reports The Conference Board. The composite value of consumer confidence in November was 129.5 up from 126.2 in October. The last nine months have each been better than at any time since 2001. The three-month moving average (3MMA) increased […]
Consumers’ view of the current economy surged in October, reports The Conference Board. Its composite value of consumer confidence in October was 125.9, up from 120.6 in September. The last eight months have each been better than at any time since 2001. The three-month moving average (3MMA) increased from 120.3 in September to 122.3 in […]
Consumer confidence dipped slightly in September, but continues to be encouraging for the U.S. economy, according to The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index. The composite value of consumer confidence in September was 119.8, down from 120.4 in August. The first estimate for August was revised down from 122.9. The last seven months have each been […]
Consumer confidence took a hit in the storm-affected regions of the South, but overall remains at high levels, which is positive news for the U.S. economy. “Consumer confidence decreased slightly in September after a marginal improvement in August,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, an independent business research association based […]
Consumer confidence took a hit in the storm-affected regions of the South, but overall remains at high levels, which is positive news for the U.S. economy. “Consumer confidence decreased slightly in September after a marginal improvement in August,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, an independent business research association based […]
Durable goods orders rose more than expected in August, picking up a gain of 1.7 percent versus a forecast for 1.0 percent, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. The increase was welcomed after a 5.8 percent decline in July. A 45 percent jump in the volatile category of nondefense aircraft orders led the increase. Core […]
Consumer confidence increased again in August, according to The Conference Board. The composite value of consumer confidence in August was 122.9, up from 120.0 in July. The first estimate for July was revised down slightly. The last seven months have each been better than at any time since 2001. The three month moving average (3MMA) […]
Durable goods orders fell 6.8 percent in July, their largest margin since August 2014, as orders for volatile aircraft orders plummeted. Orders for civilian aircraft plunged 70.7 percent after a 129.3 percent surge in June. Transportation equipment orders in total dropped 19.0 percent. The drop in July was expected by economists after the strong gains […]
In the Key Indicators data released in July, both the present situation and trends have recovered from what now appears to have been a temporary downward blip in June. Trends lead the present situation by about four months. An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those […]
Consumers are feeling better about the present economic environment and their expectations for the future, according to data from The Conference Board, which conducts a monthly Consumer Confidence Survey. Consumer confidence is the driver of consumer spending, which is the largest component of GDP and ultimately drives a large portion of steel consumption. The composite […]