Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more informtion on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. The December report of Consumer Confidence from the Conference Board shows stability at a high level based on 10 years of history. Consumer confidence as reported by the Conference Board is […]
Key Market Indicators showed a substantial improvement in market trends in the December data. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data SMU has reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for steel buyers and […]
With little likelihood of a recession any time soon, the U.S. economy appears to be in better shape than many people believe. This Steel Market Update analysis attempts to provide guidance on the likelihood of a recession in the next six months. Steel demand is related to GDP, but is vastly more volatile both on […]
The Conference Board’s September-November reports on consumer confidence show an increased weakening of people’s expectations. Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board is quite a volatile indicator; therefore, we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in November was 125.5 with a […]
The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI remained in contraction in October with a reading of 48.3, the third month of contraction, indicating continued softening in the manufacturing sector. The October reading was an increase of 0.5 percentage points from September. Nine of the ten components of the index registered below the neutral point of […]
This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data we have reported in detail during the month. It summarizes 36 data streams that describe the state of the steel market and provide forward guidance for steel buyers and sellers. See the end of this piece for an explanation of the Key Indicators […]
By CRU Economic Analyst Ippolito Tarabini and Chief Economist Jumana Saleheen World industrial production growth halved in 2019H1 to 1.5 percent from 3 percent in 2018, suffering because of a slowdown in China, the widespread downturn in the automotive sector, and the unpredictable trade negotiations between the U.S. and the rest of the world, particularly […]
By CRU Principal Economist Lisa Morrison The U.S. economy is in the midst of its longest economic expansion on record—124 months and counting. The recent deceleration in U.S. growth momentum and the fading health of the global economy call into question whether the expansion can continue, and for how long. In this article, we discuss […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share the following Premium content with Executive members. For information on upgrading to a Premium-level membership, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. When is the U.S. economy likely to see its next recession? Not anytime soon, according to Steel Market Update’s analysis of leading economic indicators, which all appear fairly healthy. Steel demand […]
Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board declined more than expected in September. Month on month, the composite value of the index declined from 134.2 to 125.1. Calculated as a three-month moving average (3MMA) to smooth the monthly volatility, the measure of consumer confidence actually increased slightly from 131.4 to 131.7. This is why […]
Both the September and October reports on consumer confidence from The Conference Board suggest a weakening of people’s expectations. Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board declined more than expected in September and experienced another small decline in October. This is quite a volatile indicator and therefore we smooth the data with a […]
The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is quite a volatile indicator, therefore we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in August was 135.1 with a three-month moving average (3MMA) of 131.7. June’s result of 124.3 now appears to be an outlier […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Of the eight indicators of economic health tracked by Steel Market Update, none is flashing red. Taken as a whole, they signal that the U.S. economy is safe from recession for […]
Consumer confidence, as reported by The Conference Board, declined sharply in June but recovered in July. The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is quite a volatile indicator, therefore we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in July was 135.7, up from […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of Key Market Indicators shows the present market situation was basically unchanged in the last month, based on data released in July, but half the 36 indicators trended positive and half negative. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail […]
Steel Market Update’s analysis of the Key Market Indicators shows a slight improvement in both our view of the present situation and in the trend of the indicators in June. This report is designed to be a big picture summary of data on which we have reported in detail during the month. In it we […]
Consumer confidence as reported by The Conference Board decline sharply in June following a downward revision of the May data. The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence is quite a volatile indicator; therefore, we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly variability. The composite value of consumer confidence in June […]
The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence in May was the highest since last November. This is quite a volatile indicator; therefore, we prefer to smooth the data with a moving average to reduce monthly volatility. The composite value of consumer confidence in May was 134.1 with a three-month moving average (3MMA) of 129.2. The […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. We are now in month No. 116 (April) of the current expansion, double the post-WWII norm, and four months from becoming the longest ever. The reason for steel people in particular to know where we are in the business cycle is that […]
Steel Market Update is pleased to share this Premium content with Executive-level members. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level subscription, email Info@SteelMarketUpdate.com. Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. We are now in month No. 118 (June) of the current expansion, double the post-WWII norm, and two […]
Editor’s note: Chris Kuehl of Armada Corporate Intelligence, a highly regarded economist and popular speaker, will once again make an appearance at Steel Market Update’s annual Steel Summit, scheduled for Aug. 26-28 in Atlanta. Click here for more information about the conference or to register. Below are excerpts of his recent comments on the likelihood […]
Major U.S. automakers reported weaker sales in March, in line with analysts’ forecasts. Cox Automotive expects auto sales volume for the month to drop 7 percent year-over-year to 1.547 million. The seasonally adjusted annual rate is forecast at 16.5 million vehicles. “The year has started relatively soft for new-vehicle sales,” notes Jonathan Smoke, chief economist […]
After declining for three straight months, The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence surged in February, only to give back most of that gain in March. The composite value of consumer confidence in March was 124.1, down from 131.4 in February. The 3MMA (three-month moving average) decreased from 126.6 in February to 125.7 in March, […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level subscribers in this issue. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level membership, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com In April, consumer confidence gained back most of the March decline. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence declined each month from November through January, surged in February, gave back […]
Existing home sales jumped 11.8 percent in February for its largest month-over-month gain since December 2015. The seasonally adjusted annual rate rose to 5.51 million, strongly rebounding from January, said the National Association of Realtors. Sales compared to a year ago were down 1.8 percent. “A powerful combination of lower mortgage rates, more inventory, rising […]
Steel Market Update is sharing this Premium content with Executive-level subscribers in this issue. For more information on upgrading to a Premium-level membership, email info@SteelMarketUpdate.com Steel Market Update’s analysis of Key Market Indicators shows that U.S. economic trends deteriorated in April to the worst level in 27 months. This report is designed to be a […]
Consumer confidence rebounded in February as the negative effect of the government shutdown receded. The Conference Board measure of consumer confidence declined each month November through January and surged in February. It appears that the shutdown had a major effect on consumers’ expectations, but not so much on their perception of the present situation. The […]
The U.S. government shutdown has had a negative effect on consumer expectations. The Conference Board’s measure of consumer confidence declined each month from November through January. It appears the shutdown had a major effect on consumers’ expectations, but not so much on their perception of the present situation. The composite value of consumer confidence in […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession, but the yield curve and housing permits should be on our radar screen. Recessions are defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the organization tasked with identifying when a recession starts and ends, as back-to-back quarters of negative economic growth. […]
Indicators of economic activity in the U.S. do not predict an imminent recession. This month we have revamped our recession monitor report to make it more time sensitive. The reason for steel people in particular to know where we are in the business cycle is that steel demand is related to GDP but is vastly […]