Consumer confidence improved from 96.3 in December to 98.1 in January. The three month moving average (3MMA) declined from 96.0 in December to 95.7 in January. The 3MMA of the present situation is almost on its five year trend and that of expectations has now fallen below its 5 year trend (Figure 1). The historical […]
Consumer confidence improved from 92.6 in November to 96.5 in December. The very disappointing November result was revised upwards. The three month moving average (3MMA) declined from 98.1 in November to 96.1 in December. As we have reported in earlier write-ups on this subject, 2015 has been tremendously more variable month to month than 2014. […]
On December 16th the Federal Reserve raised the federal funds rate for the first time in almost a decade. In the United States, the federal funds rate is “the interest rate” at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) actively trade balances held at the Federal Reserve, called federal funds, with each other, usually overnight, […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Consumer confidence declined markedly in November continuing this year’s highly erratic trend and, in fact, the view of the present situation and expectations exhibited the sharpest reversal since November 2011 when they went the other way. As we have reported in earlier write-ups on this subject, 2015 has been tremendously more variable month to month […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Consumer confidence continued this year’s highly erratic trend in the October data. As we have reported in earlier write-ups on this subject, 2015 has been tremendously more variable month to month this year than last. In all of 2014 the monthly change ranged from +5.1 to -4.4, this year the range has been +10.7 to […]
The September Institute of Supply Management (ISM) PMI registered 50.2 percent, a decrease of 0.9 percentage points from the 51.7 percent reading in August. The PMI is at its lowest point since May 2013 when it registered 50.1 percent. The three month moving average has been see-sawing since June when it gained points after seven […]
The Consumer Confidence Index improved for the second month in September, up from 101.3 in August to 103.0. The reading was the highest since January and exceeded Bloomberg’s median forecast of 96.8 and Reuter’s forecast of 96.1. Consumers in the September survey were more positive about current condition with 28 percent calling the present situation […]
“Steel will win out,” said Larry Kavanagh, president of the Steel Market Development Institute (SMDI) when asked about the use of aluminum in the automotive industry. SMU talked with Kavanagh about Ford’s announcement that it will increase the use of aluminum in the F-150, and potentially other vehicles, using Alcoa’s Micromill technology. The new Micromill […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
Consumer confidence took a big hit in July, and in out last report we wrote, “There is no multi month trend in recent data therefore we see no reason to be concerned about the July result which is slightly higher than the 25 year average.” We were not surprised by the huge bounce back in […]
Consumer confidence took a big hit in July, according to the Conference Board with a decline from June’s 99.8 to a 10-month low of 90.9. In addition there was a downward revision to June’s result. It was a steep slide in the expectations subcomponent that pulled the composite value lower. The official news release from […]
We have two data sources for this report. These are the Federal Reserve and the Oanda forex trading platform. An explanation of these sources is given at the end of this report. Oanda is current every day but the Federal Reserve daily broad index (BI) is normally about eight days in arrears. This month the […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board jumped by 6.8 points in June, as May was revised down slightly. The composite value combines the view of the present situation and expectations and this month’s result is a perfect example of why not to get too carried away by one month’s result in […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board rose one point in May to 95.4 as April was revised downwards by one point. The composite value combines the view of the present situation and expectations. The view of the present situation rose from 105.1 to 108.1 as expectations fell slightly from 87.1 to […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board fell sharply in April as March was revised upwards slightly. In April the composite value which combines the view of the present situation and expectations fell from 101.4 to 95.2. The view of the present situation fell from 109.5 to 106.8 but the big change […]
The S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for January showed home price growth slowing from year ago levels. The National Home Price Index registered a 4.5 percent annual gain for the 12 months ending in January 2015 as compared to a 10.5 percent increase in January 2014. Month over month gains for the 10- and 20-city indexes […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board increased in March and February’s disappointing decline was lessened by an upward revision. In March the composite value which combines the view of the present situation and expectations rose from 98.8 to 101.3. The view of the present situation fell from 112.1 to 109.1 (but […]
Twenty-seven months of consecutive global manufacturing growth was marked by the JP Morgan Global PMI in February. The headline index rose to 52.0 from 51.7 in January. The United States continued to be the prime driver of global growth with the Markit U.S. PMI increasing to 55.1 from 53.9 in January. Mexico showed strong growth […]
The Consumer Confidence Index as reported by the Conference Board declined in February after a very strong increase in January. In addition, the January results were revised upwards. In February the composite fell from 103.8 to 96.4, the view of the present situation fell from 113.9 to 110.2 as expectations fell from 97.0 to 87.2. […]
Home prices increased slightly in December according to data from the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices, climbing 4.6 percent year over year in the National Home Price Index. The increase was slightly less than November’s pace of 4.7 percent. On a monthly basis, both the 10- and 20-City Composites reported increases of 0.1 percent in December. […]
Global manufacturing continues to grow steadily with expansion in production and new orders in January. The JP Morgan Global Manufacturing PMI rose slightly last month to 51.7 from 51.5 in December. “The PMI turned higher in January, including moderate gains in the indexes of output and new orders,” commented David Hensley, Director of Global Economics […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers should […]
The consumer confidence index as reported by the Conference Board rose strongly in January and the December results were revised upwards. The composite rose from 93.1 to 102.9, the view of the present situation rose from 99.9 to 102.6 as expectations rose from 88.5 to 96.4. This was the first time for the composite to […]
Starts in December rose to an annual rate 1,089,000 from 1,043,000 in November. The three month moving average, (3MMA) rose to 1,075,000, (Figure 1). This was the fourth consecutive month that the 3MMA of starts exceeded a million units. The year / year growth rate of the 3MMA of total starts in December was 4.8 […]
An explanation of the Key Indicators concept is given at the end of this piece for those readers who are unfamiliar with it. The total number of indicators considered in this analysis is currently 36. Please refer to Table 1 for the view of the present situation and the quantitative measure of trends. Readers […]